FT4 Finding the key drivers for future practice

Now it is your turn to give it a try. Download the MOTION worksheet on Estimating probability and importance of the factors recognized in PESTE analysis.

The best way to use the PESTE analysis is to cover, not only the five dimensions of different actors and factors from political, economic, social, technological, and ecological perspectives, but also to recognize the actors and factors on different levels such as the world level, continent level, country level, region level and business branch level as well as the individual level. Besides, the phenomena should be divided into groups based on their probability – certain, probable, and uncertain.

PESTE analysis
Image: PESTE analysis

Analyse the PESTE information in a systematic way estimating each factor’s importance and probability. Place the factors on the worksheet matrix. Include surprise events known as wildcards. We have described wildcards and their importance in next page Wild cards – preparing to meet unexpected futures.

Consider how important each factor may be to us in the future and how certain or uncertain they are. Make sure to check the lower part of the matrix reviewing the importance rating given to these factors to check that they have not been underestimated or put in the wrong category. Once you are satisfied with the matrix you are ready to select your key drivers. Which factors have the most influence on the future? By studying following section (video duration 2:18), you can Identify key drivers for the future from a PESTE analysis.